NGS Converted to Handicaps

When converting an NGS to a club handicap, the simplistic approach is to average the two players NGS and subtract from 50. I am wondering if a better approach would be to use each pair’s “expected score” (ES) as the basis for their handicap, thus taking into account the strength of their opposition. The ES for each pair in each session is calculated as ES = 50 - SOpps + PairAverageGrade. This translates to Handicap = PairAverageGrade – SOpps. (SOpps = average strength of your opposition.)
• In straight Mitchell movements, the strength of each direction could be significantly different. The ES approach takes this into account
• The ES handicap of a bad pair in a good field would be higher than their NGS based handicap
• The ES handicap of a good pair in a good field would be lower than their NGS based handicap.
• The ES effect in single winner competitions is less, as each pair has the same opponents.
This approach would require computation from the scoring programs but that is quite doable.
Thoughts appreciated.

Comments

  • Would you really run a club night with a two-winner movement, but a one-winner handicap result? That seems like the only time when there might be an appreciable difference between the SOpp of competing pairs, but even then you could get around it by seeding the two fields so they're closer in strength.

    I think your suggestion would work, but I also think it's probably a bit too complex for not enough gain.

  • If you want a "handicap" result then the NGS column for the session once processed by EBU looks like a good bet. This shows the deviation from the pairs expected score ... the more +ve the better. Of course how you access this is another question.

  • @michael said:
    Would you really run a club night with a two-winner movement, but a one-winner handicap result? That seems like the only time when there might be an appreciable difference between the SOpp of competing pairs, but even then you could get around it by seeding the two fields so they're closer in strength.

    I think your suggestion would work, but I also think it's probably a bit too complex for not enough gain.

    1. No, two winner movements have two winner handicap results.
    2. Seeding in club events is not so easy as there is no pre-entry. The ES approach automatically accounts for the SOpps of each direction, thus seeding is not required.
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